Software & Systems

Articles of journal № 3 at 2014 year.

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31. Prospects for applying hybrid forecasting of performance of the Russian Federation state program [№3 за 2014 год]
Authors: Yarushev S.A., A.N. Averkin
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The article describes the problem of predicting in research and development (R and D) of Russia. The scope of research and development is a set of organizations and institutions which perform basic and applied research, experimental development and pilot production. As a result there is new knowledge, models of equipment and technologies, scientific dis-coveries. Intensification of production and use of new scientific and technological results has determined the drastic reduction of the innovation cycle and acceleration of products and technologies renovation pace. Current world economic situation re-quires advanced development of individual specific areas of scientific research and technological development ("clean" ener-gy, new technologies, nano-technologies, their application in agriculture, etc.). Many of them do not have a good start. All this triggers the appearance of short time series, and any forecast is based on an indicators dynamics analysis for the previous period. Practice shows that in such circumstances the use of statistical methods becomes difficult. Therefore, to create quali-tative predictions of new indicators, such as nano-technology, the authors propose to use hybrid neuro-regression systems for the best results. This article describes a distributed system for prediction of development indicators in research and development based on a comprehensive econometric model in the form of multiple regression equations. There are experimental results of short-term forecasting obtained using multiple regression.

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